Tuesday, January 8, 2008

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Ray Kurzweil - Age of mental machinery, when computers exceed human intelligence.

"I do not think that at the end of this century (21st century) will be any difference between man and machine" said Ray Kurzweil Eighth Conference on Molecular Nanotechnology. "We can expand the capacity of our brains, and a thousand or a million trillion times at the end of the century". Ray Kurzweil is a leading figure in the research of artificial intelligence systems. Is the bearer of the highest state award for technology: "The 1999 National Medal of Technology, awarded by President Clinton and many other holders of awards (eg Dickson Prize, MIT Inventor of the Year, winners of nine honorary doctorates and awards, three American presidents). The data show an illustration of scientific credibility and reputation of the scientist, so you can assess the probability forecasts presented in his latest book "The Age of Spiritual Machines, When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence" in 1999. In this paper predicts that computers will exceed the fully human intelligence already in the next few decades. He says that the exponential development of science and technology will allow us to merge with machines. We become resistant to disease, we think faster, live better, we become transľuďmi (transhuman) with characteristics that would make us the envy and Superman.

Some examples of its forecasts:

Virtual reality becomes a way in this century, most people spend their lives. Not using neural implants or virtual helium. Flood our bodies with microscopic nanobots that will essentially inject images and sensations directly into our nervous system.

computer reaches its crude output capacity and performance of the human brain around 2020, and the entire human race in 2050.



Timeline Raya Kurzveila:

2009:

- Computer for $ 1000 made about a trillion operations per second.
- Personal computers with vysokorozlišovacími screens are different sizes, from small embedded in clothing and jewelry to the size of a thin book.
- Cables disappear. Communication between components uses short-range wireless technology. High-speed wireless communication provides access to the network.
- Most of the text is created using continuous speech recognition technology. Speech interface is ubiquitous.
- Most of the routine work of commercial transactions (purchases, travel reservations) shall take place between a man and a virtual personality. Often, virtual personality includes an animated visual presence, which looks like a human face.
- Although the traditional school teaching is still present, come on intelligent software learning courses as a regular means of learning.
- Pocket-reading machines for the blind and "listening machines" for the hearing impaired, computer-controlled orthopedic devices for paraplegics, lead to a better perception and impaired movement, so that disability is not an insurmountable obstacle.
- Translator phones (language translation in real time during the interview) are commonly used for many language pairs.
- Acceleration of the development of computer technology has caused lasting economic expansion. Price deflation, which has been a reality in the computer industry during the 20th century are now located outside the computer field. The cause of this is that virtually all economic sectors are deeply dependent on accelerating the development of the price performance of computers.
- Human musicians normally play together with cybernetic musicians.
- Bioinžinierska treatment of cancer and heart disease significantly reduced mortality for these diseases.
- There is a growing movement of neo-Luddizmus (movement against the machine).

Year 2019:

- Computer under $ 1,000 (in 1999 dollars) is now settled about computing capacity of the human brain.
- Computers are now largely invisible and are embedded everywhere - in walls, tables, chairs, clothing, jewelry and bodies.
- Three-dimensional virtual reality displays in glasses and contact lenses as well as auditory "lenses" that are commonly used as basic interface for communication with others, PC, network and virtual reality.
- Most interaction with computers is done through gestures and two-way communication in natural speech.
- Nanotechnolgical machines are beginning to be applied in the production and management processes.
- high-resolution three-dimensional visual and sound virtual reality and realistic tactile všeobsahujúce do allow people to do anything with anything, regardless of physical impossibility.
- paper books and documents are rarely used and most learning is done with the help of intelligent, simulation, software-based teachers.
- Blind voperované commonly used eye glasses, reading and navigation systems. Deaf them read what others say using lenticular displays. Paraplegic and quadriplegic some can walk and walk up the stairs through a combination of computer-controlled nerve stimulation and special exoskeletických robotic devices.
- The vast majority of transactions carried out by virtual personality.
- On most roads are installed automatic control systems of vehicles.
- People start to have relations with automated personalities and use them as partners, teachers, administrators, and lovers.
- Return the virtual artists with their own reputation in all areas of art.
- Computers meet the Turing test in its entirety, although this test does not meet the criteria set out knowledgeable professionals.

Year 2029:

- Computer under $ 1,000 (in U.S. Dollars 1999) has a capacity of about 1000 times the capacity and performance of the human brain.
- Permanent and removable implants (similar to contact lenses) for the eyes as well as auditory implants are used to provide entry and exit between human users and všeprestupujúcou global computer network. Ideal for broadband connections in the human brain have become direct neural pathways. Quantity of nerve implants allows the extension of visual and auditory perception and evaluation, memory expansion and improvement of thinking.
- Automated agents are learning their own, for them the essential knowledge, there are machines created beings with a small and because no human influence.
- Computers can read all of the available, human or computer-generated literature and multimedia materials all.
- The widely used všeobsahujúca visual, auditory and tactile communication using direct neural connections, allowing virtual reality without having to be in "full sensory separation".
- The majority of communication does not include humans. Most communication happens between man and machine.
- labor is almost excluded from the manufacturing, agriculture and transport. Basic necessities are available for the vast majority of people.
- There is growing debate about the legalization of the rights of computers and the statutory provisions being called "man". Although computers without any problems and satisfy the apparently full-fledged Turing Test, controversy persists about whether machine intelligence is equal or offset human intelligence in all its diversity.
- Machines will claim to be regarded as conscious beings. These claims are largely accepted.

Year 2049:

- commonly used food created by nanotechnology, which has the correct nutritional composition, the same taste and texture as the original produced food. This means that food is no longer a limiting resource, which was dependent on weather conditions and deterioration of decomposition.
- nanobots swarm projections are used to create visual-auditory-tactile projections people and objects in real reality.

Year 2072:

- The practice is receiving pikotechnológie. (Technology at the level of subatomic particles such as electrons).

By 2099:

- There are strong trends towards a fusion of human thinking with the world of machine intelligence that people have created themselves. There is no longer a distinction between people and computers.
- Most conscious entities has no permanent physical presentation (body).
- Intelligence on the machine derived from the extended models of human intelligence is consider people, but their brains are not based on organo-cellular processes, but rather for electronic photonic equivalents. Most of these intelligences are not tied to specific computer processing unit. Many people-based software základe incomparably exceed the possibilities are being based on neural-cell basis. We are still occurring among these intelligences people using neural-cell basis with the ubiquitous nurálne implanted technology, which provides a huge increase in human perception and cognition.
- People who use these implants are unable to participate in dialogue with those who use them.
- Because most information is published using standard protocols assimilated knowledge, information can be immediately and directly Understanding.
- The intelligent beings, is discovering new skills and knowledge.
- Offers femtotechnológií are questionable. (Technology at the level of quarks).
- Life expectancy is no longer a meaningful term in conjunction with intelligent beings. After several

many Millennium:

- Intelligent beings are considering shield termination World.